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Residents of the Big Apple will learn the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will decide who governs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to send armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democratic figures against each other. The contest has turned into an acrimonious face-off, marked by alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has brought international attention. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an race that could be critical to the path that the party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's power moves, takes in the near future.

National Implications

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with Americans' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement the party's existing approach of cautious, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's optimistic platform could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an force of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that is expected. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in last year, not many had known him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The classic political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has faced difficulties in the final phase, after video surfaced appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd