Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
