A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
