🔗 Share this article A Prediction Market Participant Profited $436,000 on Wagers Predicting Venezuela's Political Shift. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. A bettor earned a substantial sum from wagers on the downfall of Venezuela's president shortly prior to it was officially announced, sparking debate about the possibility of profiting from inside knowledge of the US operation. Sudden Shift in Predictions Bets placed on the crypto-platform, a blockchain-based service, that the Venezuelan president would be removed from office by the end of January rose in the hours before former President Trump declared on January 3rd that the president had been apprehended. One account, which registered on the site recently and took four positions, all on political events in Venezuela, earned over $436,000 from a starting bet of over $32,000. The identity is unknown. The user had only a blockchain identifier for identification. Odds Fluctuate Before Public Statement Platform data shows that users put the odds of the president's removal at just a low 6.5 percent in the afternoon of the Friday before the event. Yet the odds had increased to eleven percent by shortly before midnight and spiked dramatically in the early hours of January 3rd, indicating a sudden change in betting activity just before the social media post was made. "This particular bet has all the signs of a bet based on non-public details," commented Dennis Kelleher. A small number of other traders also made significant sums from predicting the capture. Legal Questions Emerges Politicians are starting to take note. A new rule put forward on the start of the week seeks to ban government employees from placing bets on forecasting platforms if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a market. The Prediction Market Landscape Event-driven betting sites have surged in popularity in the past few years, with users able to bet on everything from elections to politics. Prediction markets faced scrutiny under the previous administration. Yet it has found a more favorable environment during the current presidency. Insider trading is against the law in the stock market, but there are fewer regulations in the prediction market arena. A spokesperson for a competing service said their site "has clear rules against such activities of any form."